2020 RBC Heritage Sleeper Picks

RBC Heritage SleepersThe dust from last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge has past and now PGA tour players get to play for the coveted Tartan jacket that the winner of the RBC Heritage gets. It must be quite the closet for guys that have won both the Masters and the RBC Heritage but fashion style aside the tournament itself boasts a decent field of golfers with a bunch of big names sponsored by RBC slated to be there as well as some guys that are still racking up FedEx Cup points.

Finding sleeper picks this week means you have to factor in a variety of things. Did the golfer play in last week’s tournament? It is a grind both physically and mentally and guys that played all four rounds are sometimes just playing out the string at the RBC Heritage. Some guys played but missed the cut so they have a bit of an advantage in that they still got to play and keep themselves sharp without being overtaxed. Then there are the guys that had a week off from any tournament play which is for some golfers a good rest and for some if they are on a hot streak can cool them right down. Throw in that Harbour Tour is a bit of a tricky course and so some course history needs to be looked at…all this means that you will need to either do a whack of research this week on stats like we have below or call in the experts like the guys at GolfStats.com. If you haven’t joined them yet, try them out and use our GolfStats Coupon Code GOLFBONUS to save you some cash when you join.

Want to bet on the RBC Heritage Tournament? Check out the Current RBC Heritage Betting Odds

RBC Heritage Golf Course

Harbour Town Golf Links par 71 - 7,099 yards

The RBC Heritage still gets a pretty solid field of golfers even though it is following the Masters…Must be the Tartan jacket that draws guys into the field. The golf course itself, Harbour Town Golf Links is a Pete Dye designed course which we’ve talked previously about as being a sneaky tough course for some although some golfers love to play them. If you like to focus on course history, take a peak not only at the course history of guys playing the RBC Heritage but other Pete Dye courses such as: TPC Sawgrass, Colonial Country Club, Sea Island, and TPC Louisiana. Weather is also key this week since bad weather makes this course one of the hardest on the PGA Tour but on great weather weeks it ranks middle of the pack in difficulty.

Harbour Town isn’t a long course at 7,099 yards so distance stats go out the window – it’ll be accuracy stats that you will want to focus your attention on. Looking at driving accuracy can also be avoided since most guys need to club down to avoid trouble and so looking at approach stats is where to focus your research. Because it is a Pete Dye course, accuracy is still a premium off the tee so focus more on good drive percentage stats and approach stats to the greens.

First off, look at Greens in Regulation (GIR). The greens on average are some of the smallest on the PGA Tour so guys that already excel at GIR are going to be high on your list of sleepers. Most of the previous winners of the Valero Texas Open ranked in the Top 10 in greens in regulation during the week. It’s not just the size of the greens to worry about but the bunkers that surround most of the holes so the other stat to keep a look out for is Scrambling. Guys are going to miss the green on their second shot (especially if the winds kick up) so picking guys that are good at getting themselves out of trouble consistently is key.

There are only three Par 5’s and three Par 3’s so Par 4 scoring will also be key to picking a sleeper. Most guys will lose strokes on the par 4’s so key in on the guys that make a living grind out pars especially Par 4’s.

If you look back at previous tournaments at Harbour Town, the majority of strokes are hit in the 150-175 yard range. Check out on the PGA Tour site in the stats section guys that rank high in the Proximity 150-175 which is indicative of great iron players in that range.

RBC Heritage key stats to look at when Picking a Sleeper Pick

  • Greens in Regulation – The second shot will be the important one so landing in on the green will be imperative. Look for guys that are pretty accurate with the short clubs and will have a chance for a birdie putt or a 2 putt par.
  • Overall Putting Average – Not a stats that gets looked at often but Harbour Town’s greens are so small that there are less putts made because you aren’t looking at 3 putts very often.
  • Scrambling – Guys that miss the green on their second shot will have to be about to stick it close to the pin on their third
  • Strokes Gained Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around the Green
  • Strokes Gained Tee to Green
  • Par 4 Scoring
  • Birdie or Better %
  • Proximity 150-175

Some RBC Heritage Sleeper Picks to Consider

Luke Donald - Donald has been as close to winning the RBC Heritage as humanly possible. He has finished in 2nd place 5 times and 3rd place twice. He knows the course and should have an advanatge over some of the favorites coming in that have never even played the course. You can see what Donald's current odds are here RBC Betting Odds and see if they pay off well enough for you if he wins.

Ian Poulter - Poulter had a nice start back to golf with a Top 30 finish. His last three tournaments he has finished 10th – 7th – 11th and has never missed the cut at Harbour Town. Poulter's game lines up well for the RBC Heritage and makes an intriguing outright bet to win this week.

If you haven't read it yet, check out our RBC Heritage Tournament Preview